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May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.
5月3日（彭博资讯）- 投资者法贝尔说：“中国经济将放缓，并可能一年内倒塌，如目前股票下跌和商品价格上升的信号预示着房地产泡沫有可能爆破。
The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy,” Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen,” he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.
上证综合指数未能恢复其2009年的高度，而工业品和澳洲资源出口类股表现“沉闷”。上周，在上海开幕的世博会不是好兆头。其理由是1873年世界博览会在维也纳举行后，奥地利出现了房地产泡沫爆破和经济大萧条。
“The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today. “The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”
他在香港彭博资讯的电视采访中说：“市场已经告诉你现状不太正常了，有很明确地迹象显示中国经济正在放缓，甚至会在未来9-12个月的某个时候崩溃。
An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8 percent today, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12 percent this year, Asia’s worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that’s spurred record gains in property prices. China’s markets are shut for a holiday today.
在央行今年第三次准备金提高信息公布之后，有指数追踪在香港上市的中国股票今天下跌了1.8%，达到最近两周内的最大跌幅。上海综合指数今年已经狂泻20%，是今年亚洲表现最差的股票市场。政策制定者和决策者在寻求控制贷款高峰，因为这种贷款政策之前刺激了楼价纪录的攀升。今天，中国的股市因五一节休市。
Copper touched a seven-week low and BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, fell the most since February on concern spending in the world’s third-largest economy will slow and after Australia boosted taxes on commodities producers. Rio Tinto Ltd., the third-largest, slid as much as 6 percent.
铜价触及七周内最低点，“必和必拓”作为世界上最大的矿业公司对此感触发最深，从今年2月份开始市场担心世界上第三大经济体将放缓发展步伐，同时力拓公司在澳大利亚提高商品生产税收后，其价格下跌多达6%。
Faber joins hedge fund manager Jim Chanos and Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a crash in China.
马克法贝尔与对冲基金经理查诺斯还有哈佛大学罗格夫一道对中国经济崩溃发出警告。
China is “on a treadmill to hell” because it’s hooked on property development for driving growth, Chanos said in an interview last month. As much as 60 percent of the country’s gross domestic product relies on construction, he said. Rogoff said in February a debt-fueled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade.
查诺斯在上个月的一次采访时说目前，中国是在“通往地狱的跑步机上”，因为它是利用房地产发展来驱动经济，并且已经深陷不能自拔。国内生产总值中60%以上完全依赖于“建设”。罗格夫说，中国在今年2月债务拉动型泡沫可能引发未来十年内区域经济衰退。
The government has banned loans for third homes and raised mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for second-home purchases. Prices rose 11.7 percent across 70 cities in March from a year earlier, the most since data began in 2005.
政府已经禁止第三套房屋贷款并提升了贷款利率和第二购房首期付款的要求。同比去年，中国近70个城市房地产价格上涨11.7%，这个提升比例达到2005年3月以来的提升比例之最。
The government has stopped short of raising interest rates to contain property prices. Within an hour of the central bank announcement on reserve ratios, Finance Minister Xie Xuren said that officials remained committed to expansionary policies to cement the nation’s recovery.
政府已停止提高短期利率以遏制楼价。在央行存款准备金率提高公布一小时内，中央财政部部长谢旭人说，官员仍致力于扩张性政策以巩固“国家的复苏”。
The nation’s economy grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years. The government projects gross domestic product growth for the year of about 8 percent.
中国第一季度经济增长速度11.9%，达到最近三年之最。其中政府投资项目带动的国内产品需求增加增幅达到了8%。
The clampdown on property speculation may prompt investors to turn to the nation’s stock market, Faber said. Still, shares are “fully priced” and Chinese investors may instead become “big buyers” of gold, he said.
房地产投机行为的减少有可能促使投资者将资金转向股市。然而，股票是“完全定价的”，因此中国投资者可能反而成了“黄金大买家”。
BlackRock Inc. is among money managers reducing their holdings on Chinese stocks on expectations that economic growth has peaked. The BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund has widened its “underweight” position for China versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to about 7.5 percent from 4.6 percent at the end of March, the fund’s London-based co-manager Dan Tubbs said.
贝莱德公司作为一家基金公司正减持其持有的中国股市股票，因为该公司预期中国经济已经达到了顶点。该基金伦敦总部联席经理丹塔布斯说，贝莱德公司的新兴市场基金已扩大了在中国股市“减持”的立场，与此同时，MSCI（摩根士丹利资本国际公司）新兴市场指数在三月底已经从4.6%上调到7.5%。
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of China Ltd, the nation’s three largest banks, are trading near their lowest valuations on record as rising profits are eclipsed by concern bad loans will increase.
中国工商银行，中国建设银行和中国银行，作为国家最大的三家银行，因不良贷款预期加大而掩盖了其本身公司利润增长，目前三大公司的估值已经迫近最低点。
Citigroup Inc. warned in March that in a “worst case scenario,” the non-performing loans of local-government investment vehicles, used to channel money to stimulus projects, could swell to 2.4 trillion yuan by 2011.
今年3月，花旗银行提醒“最坏的情况”，由于当地政府用“资金”刺激经济发展的投资项目而引起的不良贷款，2011年可能扩大到2.4兆元人民币。
Housing prices nationwide may fall as much as 20 percent in the second half of the year on government measures to curb speculation, BNP Paribas said April 23. Under a stress test conducted by the Shanghai branch of the China Banking Regulatory Commission in February, local banks’ ratio of delinquent mortgages would triple should home prices in the country’s commercial center decline 10 percent.
4月23日法国巴黎银行表示，由于中央政府采取措施遏制房地产市场的投机，到今年下半年，全国房屋售价可能下跌20%。根据中国银行业监督管理委员会上海分会今年2月进行的压力测试，如果全国商业中心房价下降百分之十，本地银行按揭贷款拖欠比率将提高两倍。
Shanghai is projecting as many as 70 million visitors to the $44 billion World Expo, more than 10 times the number who traveled to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. More than 433,000 people visited the 5.3 square-kilometer (3.3 square-mile) park on its first weekend.
上海世博会预测7000万游客，创造440亿美元收入，这是2008年北京奥运会十倍的人数。开元第一个周末约有43万3千人参观了5.3平方公里面积的世博公园。
这是我们公司高层领导整理的一份信息，以上内容翻译如有误差，请前辈们指教！哈哈！ |
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发表于 2010-5-21 11:40:53
楼主
发表于 2010-5-21 17:50:48
学习了！
发表于 2010-5-21 22:03:52
发表于 2010-5-22 02:33:41