股市狂升，是否有理？

FCH

今天美国市场有3个比较重要的消息，一个是关于房屋的，一个是关于GM汽车的，还有一个是消费者信心的。

第一个消息绝对负面，房价再创新低；第二个也是负面，GM跟债权人没有达成协议，很可能要走入破产保护；第三个消费者信心指数，创6年来最大升幅。

市场的反应：

道瓊斯指數	8,473.49	+196.17	(2.37%)
納斯達克指數	1,750.43	+58.42	(3.45%)

现在是市场对负面新闻几乎麻木，而有点好消息就往上冲。

对于这种升势，美国的投资界众说纷纭。升得有支持吗？你怎么看？

FCH

摘点本地讨论：


Liz Claman: Joined byScott Richter from large cap strategies at Fifth Third asset managementand Joe Clark, managing partner at Financial Enhancement Group. I’llgoing to start with Joe. You look at a day like today, skyrocket up 210points when there is quite a bit of fear in the market. Not much haschanged. A lot of financial institutions either still need governmenthelp or don’t know what they’ll do with the not to mention problemswith General Motors, North Korea, yet, we’re moving higher. Do you putcredence in the rally?
Joe Clark: I put credence in it for a different reason. The fear is in the headline. Obviously, not in the market.” Fox Business Network 5/26/2009

A panel that was invited to appear on Fox Businesstoday was asked the question that is on so many minds: Can we trustthis rally? That is the question that everyone is wondering and Iappreciate Joe Clark’s answer, quite simply the market is notresponding to the news. Investors have been far more bullish which isevident in the exuberance with which the market has turned around.However, the news continues to suggest that while stabilization in theeconomy may be likely, many of the worst problems linger on. Forexample, unemployment continues to rise, and Pimco’s Mohamed El-Eriansays that we should recalibrate our expectations and consider 8% to bethe norm from now on.
The housing market is another persistentarea of concern as Case-Shiller home prices index showed the steepestdecline in year over year terms. Housing starts are at an extremely lowlevel not seen since the 1950s, which is a good thing to correct theoversupply of housing but is bad for economic growth/constructionactivity. Foreclosures have not abated and indeed many areas areexpecting them to worsen through the rest of the year, as evenso-called “prime borrowers” are defaulting at an accelerating pace.Corporate profits have been slammed in this recession, but equitymarkets have surged on the “not as bad as feared” mentality. Consumerconfidence has risen but whether it translates into more spending issubject to debate.
So, this set of circumstances leads analystsand observers to question what the market’s rally really means. No oneknows the answer, but it sure seems that caution is warranted. As a post by Bespoke Investmentpoints out, the volume recently has trailed off as the market gainsbegin to lose steam. It seems increasingly likely that a downwardcorrection could be coming, and it could be severe if volume piles inon top of it. There may be a reason for contained optimism, but as wesaw with the mini-rally from December into early January, a reversalcan come about quickly with little warning. In this case, the warningsigns are all around, but the market does not want to hear them.
Finally, a brief comment from Dr. John Hussman’s Weekly Market Comment,

Oneof the concerns that seems to be developing here is that the stockmarket has gone a significant distance on what is now an article offaith (and a largely discounted one) that an economic recovery is closeat hand. To some extent, that puts us in a situation where instead ofrequiring only that the news is “less bad than expected,” themaintenance and extension of recent gains will require actualimprovement in economic reports. As continuing unemployment claims,retail sales and other data are suggesting, those improvements may notcome as easily as expected.

FCH

Consumer confidence soars, but wallets still shut
NEW YORK (AP) -- Even with unemployment still rising and home pricesstill slumping, Americans are getting their confidence back in theeconomy.
A widely watched barometer of confidence unexpectedly rose to thehighest level since September, buoyed by an unexpected surge in thestock market, hopes that the job market might turn around and thebelief that the worst of the recession is behind us.

But don't expect shoppers to buy expensive jeans and fancy furniture anytime soon.
"Consumersare not likely to spend just because they think things will getbetter," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia. "They willactually have to see them get better."

As a testament to theeconomy's challenges, a closely monitored housing index also releasedTuesday showed home prices fell at the sharpest rate ever in the firstquarter, though the drop-off was worse at the beginning of the quarter.
Meanwhile,Americans are grappling with an unemployment rate that's expected toclimb to 9.2 percent in May, up from 8.9 percent, as companies lay offmore workers.

That has helped push shoppers to keep shopping at discount stores and cutting back on nonessentials.
CheriRadke, 52, of Waukesha, Wis., says she buys more food, makeup and othernecessities at Wal-Mart and shops sales at Target. Radke works in abank and has been scared by seeing people cash more unemploymentchecks, so she's trying to be frugal.

"More on a need basis, less than a want," she said of her shopping habits. "I'm trying to be more cost-conscious."
Still,the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index's 14.1-point surge to54.9, following another big gain in April, is encouraging. Economistssurveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting 42.3. In February,confidence levels had hit a new historic low of 25.3.

May'sconfidence level is the highest since eight months ago, when it was61.4. The levels are also closer to last May's 58.1, though the widelywatched barometer is still far from healthy. A reading above 90 meansthe economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth.

The consumer confidence is determined by a mail survey of a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households from May 1 to May 19.

Muchof the improvement in confidence came from the Expectations Index,which measures shoppers' outlook over the next six months. Thatbarometer climbed to 72.3 from 51.0 in April. Consumers' assessment inthe present situation, however, was still weak, rising to 28.9 from25.5 last month.

It also showed that shoppers were less pessimistic about the job market, even though it remains grim.

Investorsfocused on the upbeat sentiment reading, shaking off the downbeatreport on the housing market. In early afternoon trading, the Dow rose200.24, or 2.4 percent, to 8,477.56.

The confidence report offered encouraging news to merchants, after confidence plummeted to historic lows late last year.
Consumerconfidence sank to 38.8 in October after the financial meltdown andstock market plunge, at that time lowest level since The ConferenceBoard started tracking the data. It has fallen even lower since then.But the recent two-month stock rally has helped spur dramatic reboundsin April and May.

Meanwhile, better-than-expected earningsresults from such retailers as Sears Holdings Corp. and Gap Inc. haveoffered some evidence that spending has begun to stabilize, with salesdeclines moderating.

Still, the retail business overall is weak,and economists don't expect to see any modest recovery in spendinguntil later this year. Vitner believes it will be another year beforemerchants enjoy strong spending growth.

While Gary Thayer, chiefeconomist at Wells Fargo Advisors, was encouraged by May's confidencereport, he noted that confidence still has a way to go before shoppersgo back to splurging. That can only happen when the job and housingmarkets start to turn around.

The Standard &Poor's/Case-Shiller National Home Price index reported Tuesday thathome prices tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter compared withthe same quarter in 2008, the biggest year-over-year decline in its21-year history. Home prices have fallen 32.2 percent since peaking inthe second quarter of 2006 and have fallen to the levels seen at theend of 2002.

AP Retail Writer Emily Fredrix in Waukesha, Wis.,and AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa in Washington contributed tothis report.

戈壁胡杨

sofa!

戈壁胡杨

炒股感觉：

1、信心。2008年10月以来，经济一下子就那么差吗？

非也!但股市就是一跌千丈。

现在经济就是那么好吗？

同比，绝对值是更差，但环比好了一点点，

大家都认为走出谷底了，信心爆棚。

郎咸平教授前两天还在说，中国经济是最差的时候到了，

为什么大买汽车，以前忙着赚钱没时间陪家人了，现在金融危机没事做，买车陪家人。

为什么股市楼市大旺？工厂都停工了，没什么好投资的干脆去炒股。

索罗斯写的玩意看来看去就是看大家的信心。

看到胡先生对着奥先生说，回去调动一切可以调动的力量鼓鼓劲，股市就上去了。

君不见，那些大行现在基本上不乱说话了（这句话是真的），股市就上去了。

2、那些基金经理联合造势。去年那些个基金经理的信誉跌到冰点，基金亏空太大，

今年不做点事，谁还买基金？

huhu

同意，今年还真没什么事情可作，所以走FB线路。

kevin_tan

看不懂！
估计老巴也看不懂！

FCH

那个消费者信心指数，其实就是问卷调查，看看一般人对经济各方面的感觉。信心增加，有时候却不一定真的肯花钱。等一部分人从股市赚了钱，其它资产也增值了，手就会忍不住要消费了。可能经济正在谷底，不过股市似乎在期待着什么，呵呵。。。

FCH

摘一篇对美国经济学家的调查数据：简述就是，多数经济学家认为经济已经或马上见底，但是回升会比较慢；美国消费者存款率上升，资产贬值，所以，未来数年的消费会比较节省；

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Survey: most economists see recession end in '09

WASHINGTON (AP) -- More than 90 percent of economists predict the U.S. recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.

That assessment came from leading forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics to be released Wednesday. It is generally in line with the outlook from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues.

About 74 percent of the forecasters expect the recession -- which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II -- to end in the third quarter. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.

"While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing," said NABE president Chris Varvares, head of Macroeconomic Advisers. "The economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

One of the major forces that plunged the economy into a recession was the financial crisis that struck with force last fall and was the worst since the 1930s. Economists say recoveries after financial crises tend to be slower.

Against that backdrop, unemployment will climb this year even if the economy is rebounding, the NABE forecasters predict. Companies won't be in a rush to hire until they feel certain any recovery is firmly rooted.

For all of this year, the forecasters said the unemployment rate should average 9.1 percent, a big jump from 5.8 percent last year and up from its current quarter-century peak of 8.9 percent. If NABE forecasters are right, it would be the highest since a 9.6 percent rate in 1983, when the country was struggling to recover from a severe recession.

Some forecasters thought the unemployment rate could rise as high as 10.7 percent in the second quarter of next year. The NABE outlook from 45 economists was conducted April 27 through May 11.

General Motors Corp., chemical company DuPont and Clear Channel Communications Inc. were among the companies announcing mass layoffs during the survey period.

With joblessness rising, consumers -- major shapers of overall economic activity -- likely will stay cautious, making for a tepid turnaround. And given the big bite the recession has taken out of household wealth, notably the values of homes and investment portfolios, consumers probably will stay subdued for some time.

Seventy-one percent of the forecasters believe a more-thrifty consumer will be around for at least the next five years. Americans' personal savings rate edged up to 4.2 percent in March, marking the first time in a decade that the savings rate has been above 4 percent for three straight months.

Even as the NABE forecasters believe the country will emerge from recession later this year, they also predict the economy's overall performance in 2009 will be rotten.

The economy should contract by 2.8 percent this year, the forecasters said in updated projections. That's worse than the 1.9 percent drop they forecast in late February. If they are right, it would mark the worst annual contraction since 1946, when economic activity fell by 11 percent.

Still, the forecasters believe the worst is already behind the country in terms of lost economic activity.

The economy shrank at a 6.1 percent annualized pace in the first three months of this year, on top of a 6.3 percent decline in the final three months of last year, the worst six-month performance in 50 years.

For the current April-June quarter, the NABE forecasters believe the economy will shrink at a pace of 1.8 percent. After that, the economy should start growing again -- at a 0.7 percent pace in the third quarter and a 1.8 percent pace in the fourth quarter.

NABE's growth projections for the third and fourth quarters are lower than those made in late February. The downgrade was based on the expectation that businesses, whose profits and sales were hit hard by the recession, will remain wary of ramping up investment.

President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus package of increased government spending and tax cuts, near-zero interest rates ordered by the Fed and government programs to get banks to lend more freely again all factor into the expected economic revival.

Many forecasters also predict that home sales will hit bottom by the middle of this year, another stabilizing factor for the economy. A report on sales of previously owned homes will be released Wednesday, and data on new-home sales is due Thursday.

Next year, the economy should grow by 2 percent, the forecasters said. That was lower than the 2.4 percent growth projected in February.

With a lethargic recovery expected, forecasters predict the Fed won't start boosting interest rates until the second quarter of next year.

Because Fed policymakers expect credit and financial problems to ebb slowly, "the pace of the recovery would continue to be damped in 2010," they said last week.

fywz06

美国股市是一个级别较大的反弹，中国股市不好说，也不敢说