关注经济.学习英语 之 中国股市是否存在泡沫?

Jeff.家里一口田

CHINA'S FEVERISH STOCK MARKET TOO HOT FOR COMFORT


At the start of 2004, a man walked up to the offices of China's stock market regulator in Beijing and tried to set himself on fire. His reason? To complain about the collapse in share prices.
2004年初，一名男子走近中国股市监管机构办公楼，试图自焚。他的理由？抗议股价暴跌。

Fast forward two years and the country is in the grips of a bout of stock market fever. Having seen the market rise 130 per cent in 2006, bringing to an end a five-year slump, thousands of investors are signing up every day to open brokerage accounts.
两年之后，中国股市进入了一轮牛市行情。中国股市在2006年上涨130%，结束了5年的下跌走势，现在中国每天都有成千上万的投资者开设股票交易账户。

The Shanghai stock exchange has even warned that record trading volumes could destabilise its electronic trading system.
上海证券交易所甚至发出警告：创纪录的交易量可能导致其电子交易系统不稳定。


Yet such success has brought a new headache for the regulators. Having spent several years being criticised for the prolonged market slump, they now face the opposite problem – trying to prevent a bubble developing in the equity market.
然而，这种成功也为监管部门带来了新的头疼问题。过去几年因股市长期低迷而备受批评的监管者，如今遇到了相反的问题——如何防止证券市场出现泡沫。

In recent weeks, several warning signs have emerged that the market is over-stretched. The surge in share prices saw Industrial and Commercial Bank of China become, at one stage, the second largest bank in the world behind Citigroup – only a few years after it was considered to be nearly insolvent. Chinese shares listed on the Hong Kong market have a price-earnings ratio of 18: the same companies on the Shanghai market have a p/e ratio of 33.
几个市场涨幅过大的预警信号最近几周相继出现。股价的大幅上涨，使得中国工商银行(Industrial and Commercial Bank of China)一度成为仅次于美国花旗集团(Citigroup)的世界第二大银行——就在几年前，人们还认为中国工商银行已濒于破产。香港上市的中国股票市盈率为18：这些公司在上海市场的市盈率则达到了33。

For the regulators, such figures bring back bad memories. The previous collapse in the mainland market, beginning in 2001, came after a large gap opened up between valuations in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
对监管者而言，这些数字会引起他们痛苦的回忆。始于2001年的内地股市崩盘，就是在上海和香港市场估值出现巨大差距后开始的。

Reforming the stock market has been one of the main pillars of government economic policy over the past two years. Officials want to encourage flotations to take some of the strain off the banking system, which has been the main source of capital for Chinese industry.
过去两年，股票市场改革一直是政府经济政策的主要支柱之一。政府官员希望鼓励企业上市，以此减轻作为中国产业资金主要来源的银行系统的压力。

Yet a slump in share prices could stifle new-found investor confidence in equities and limit the amount of capital raised from the market.
但股价的暴跌可能扼杀投资者对股市重新树立的信心，降低股市筹资额。

“What China really needs is 20 years of steady 15 per cent increases in the market, but it got 130 per cent in one year,” says Jonathan Anderson, an economist at UBS.
瑞银集团(UBS)经济学家乔纳森"安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示：“中国真正需要的是股市在20年内以每年15%的速度稳步上涨，但它却在一年内涨了130%。”

“If continued speculation leads to a sharp fall, it could close off that [initial public offering] pipeline.”
“如果持续投机导致股市大跌，就可能抑制新股上市。”

The problem for Beijing is that the market is highly vulnerable to bubbles.
中国政府的问题在于，内地股市非常容易受到泡沫的冲击。


China has Rmb34,000bn ($4,372bn) in bank deposits that receive a meagre 2 per cent return and there are strict limits on how much money citizens can take out of the country. So when confidence in equities is high, there is a huge surge of liquidity into the stock market that bids up domestic share prices to unrealistic levels.
中国的银行存款余额达34万亿元人民币（合4.372万亿美元），而回报率只有区区2%。中国还严格限制本国公民可携带出境的资金数额。因此，在对股市的信心高涨时，流入股市的流动资金就会大幅飙升，从而将内地股票价格推高至不现实的水平。

The government has already taken modest measures to cool the investment climate. Licences for new mutual funds have been put on hold and the banking regulator is investigating the use of personal loans to buy stocks. Beyond that, the government has other options. For a start, it can increase the supply of new shares. The regulator usually operates a queue system for IPOs but officials say, at the moment, any company with the necessary qualifications can go ahead with a listing.
中国政府已采取适度措施，给投资气候降温。新共同基金的审批已经暂停，银行业监管机构也在对将个人贷款用于股票买卖的行为展开调查。除此之外，中国政府还有其它选择。首先，它可以增加新股的供应。中国监管机构对新股上市通常采用排队机制，但是政府官员已经表示，任何符合必要资格的公司目前都可以上市。

With big companies already listed in Hong Kong increasingly looking at mainland listings, Shanghai could see Rmb200bn in IPOs this year and outstrip Hong Kong, according to PwC, the consultants.
顾问机构普华永道(PwC)表示，随着已在香港上市的大型企业纷纷考虑在内地上市，上海股市今年可能有2000亿元人民币新股上市，市场规模有望超过香港。

A government reform of the shareholder structure of listed companies, which is gradually eliminating the large overhang on non-tradeable shares, will also release a new wave of supply on to the market. Up to Rmb500bn of shares could, in theory, start to be traded over the course of this year.
政府对上市公司进行的股权分置改革，逐渐消除了巨大的非流通股问题，这也将导致一波新股涌入市场。从理论上说，今年将有多至5000亿元人民币的股票开始交易。

“At the moment demand is outstripping supply,” says Qui Yanying at TX Investment Consulting in Shanghai. “But the IPOs and the unlocking of non-tradable shares could reverse that situation.”
天相投资顾问有限公司驻上海的分析师仇彦英(Qui Yanying)表示：“目前市场需求大于供给，但是新股上市和非流通股解禁可能会扭转这种局面。”

Although the authorities say they favour letting foreigners play a bigger role in the market, any further increases in the limited quota for foreign investment in mainland stocks are unlikely at the moment.
尽管有关当局表示愿意让外国投资者在中国市场发挥更大作用，但要提高外国投资者在内地股市的有限投资配额，目前是不大可能的。

The government could also take further measures to mop up liquidity in the financial system by increasing bank reserve requirements and restricting new lending.
中国政府可能还会采取更多措施，通过提高银行存款准备金率和限制新贷款的发放等，吸纳金融体系的流动资金。


Investors are also on the look-out for a strongly worded editorial in the People's Daily or the Xinhua News Agency that warns against putting more money into the stock market.
投资者也在留意《人民日报》(People's Daily)或新华社(Xinhua News Agency)是否会发表措辞严厉的社评，对将更多资金投入股市发出警告。

If all these measures do not calm the market, there is likely to be a serious debate about introducing a capital gains tax for equity investments. The ministry of finance has, for the first time, ordered that individuals with income of more than Rmb120,000 a year report stock trading profits, which some analysts see as a preparation for a new tax.
如果所有这些措施还不能让市场归于平静，中国可能就会认真探讨引入证券投资资本利得税的问题。中国财政部已首次要求年收入超过12万元人民币的个人上报股票交易收益，部分分析师将此视为引入新税种的前期准备工作。

The government has had some success in using a capital gains tax to reduce speculation in the Shanghai property market over the last year. Yet officials say there are fears that a capital gains tax would prompt an exodus from the market
过去一年，中国政府曾利用资本利得税来限制上海房地产市场的投机，并取得了初步成功。但是，中国政府官员表示，他们担心，资本利得税的征收可能促使资金大量撤离市场。