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发表于 2006-12-24 23:39:57
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回复: 英国《金融时报》 原版英文 每日一贴
CUT IN SUPPLY OF NEW US HOMES BRINGS ECONOMY TO TIPPING POINT By Eoin Callan and Doug Cameron Tuesday, November 28, 2006 If you buy a house this month in Nevada's bone-dry Las Vegas valley you can probably get a swimming pool and a Florida vacation thrown in for the price of a new home.
The perks are among the incentives being offered by property developers desperate to fill tens of thousands of homes that stand empty in the billowing dust after a whirlwind of speculative construction swept the southern and western states.
Anna Klinger, a Nevada real estate agent, says: “The developers are repenting for what they did. They built too much, too fast
Housebuilders acknow-ledge they overshot in fast-growing states such as Nevada, but point out they have scaled back new construction and predict normal industry activity will resume next year as excess homes are sold off.
The accuracy of this prediction is critical to the outlook for the US economy and could tip the balance of opinion within the Federal Reserve about the direction of interest rates.
The latest data show a drop to a six-year low in new building starts, bringing the supply of new homes to a level below demand and signalling an end to speculative construction.
There is a consensus among economists that the emergence of a supply gap has brought the economy to a tipping point. But there is heated debate about whether builders have acted quickly enough to prevent a further downward lurch that would choke off economic growth.
Statements from the Fed to date have consistently suggested the construction industry is nearing the bottom of the trough and is set to stabilise, without unduly undermining consumer confidence. This would allow economic growth to return towards trend next year.
Ethan Harris, chief US economist at Lehman Brothers, shares this view: “We are seeing the beginning of a return to an equilibrium in the housing sector.” The key signposts on the road to this outcome, he says, will be a fall in housing stocks combined with a stabilisation in construction activity.
Mr Harris predicts three sets of data this week will provide evidence of market stabilisation, with existing home sales rising for the first time in eight months, new home sales falling by less than 2 per cent, and house prices rising by a modest annualised rate of 2 per cent in the third quarter.
But there is also an alternative scenario in which construction activity continues to drop precipitously, resulting in more heavy job losses, weak house prices and an erosion of consumer confidence that would threaten recession.
This pessimistic scenario is likely to have assumed greater prominence in the bank's internal debate since the last Fed meeting, when it held rates but retained its tightening bias.
This is partly because of separate data showing a welcome fall in inflation, which until now has been the principal preoccupation of governors. But it is also because last month's fall in housing starts by 15 per cent to 1.5m was much sharper than most economists expected.
A further drop in construction activity – combined with subdued inflation and rising unemployment – could shift the Fed from its current hawkish stance and trigger a serious debate about cutting interest rates next year.
The large builders admit that the slowdown has been more severe than they expected at the start of this year.
David Rosenberg, chief US economist at Merrill Lynch, says: “I think the latest barrage of data told you that housing hasn't bottomed.
We're not going to hit bottom for the entire sector until the tail-end of 2007.”
Mr Rosenberg predicts a further 10 per cent decline in housing and “at least another 400,000-500,000 job losses”.
Critically, he also forecasts a 10 per cent decline in house prices next year, which would severely test the resolve of consumers.
Mr Rosenberg points out that buyers are not only steering clear of new homes, they are also walking away from purchases already agreed.
Cancellation rates rose to 42 per cent across the industry in the third quarter as consumers preferred to forgo deposits rather than risk being caught in a spiral of falling prices.
Don Tomnitz, chief executive of DR Horton, one of the largest builders, talks of a “bad psychology” in the market as buyers steer clear amid fears that prices will plummet further. But he argues this phenomenon is creating “pent-up” demand that will be released and result in a strong rebound in 2008.
Real estate agents tend to share this optimistic view. Even in the Las Vegas valley, skittish buyers are starting to view homes again, according to Mrs Klinger.
“At the end of the day, there are always families that need more space for their kids or a new place to live. People don't just stop buying houses,” she says.
楼市趋冷 美经济面临转折？ 作者：英国《金融时报》约恩•卡伦(Eoin Callan)、道格•卡梅隆(Doug Cameron)2006年11月28日 星期二 如果你本月在干燥异常的内华达州拉斯维加斯山谷购买一套房子，那么你很可能会获得一个游泳池和一次前往佛罗里达州度假的机会，它们已包含在新房价格之中。
这些额外优惠只是房地产开发商促销手段的一部分。在投机性建房热潮席卷美国西部和南部各州后，目前有数万套房屋空置在滚滚尘烟中，开发商们迫切希望将它们卖出去。
内华达州房地产经纪人安娜•克林格(Anna Klinger)表示：“房地产开发商现在后悔莫及。它们盖的房子太多，速度也太快了。”
房屋建筑商承认，它们对内华达等发展迅速的州估计过高，但同时指出，它们已经降低了新屋开工量，并预计随着过剩的房屋被廉价售罄，行业活动将于明年恢复正常。
这一预测是否准确，对于美国经济前景来说至关重要，并可能打破美联储内部在利率走向这一问题上的意见平衡。
最新数据显示，新屋开工量跌至6年低点，导致新屋供应量降至低于需求的水平，这标志着投机性建筑热潮的终结。
经济学家一致认为，供应缺口的出现已将美国经济推到了一个临界点。如果住宅市场困境进一步加剧，将抑制美国经济的增长。但对于房屋建筑商的应对举措是否来得及避免这一局面的出现，经济学家存在激烈的争论。
迄今为止，美联储的声明始终暗示，建筑业正接近行业周期的底部，该行业将趋于稳定，不会过分影响消费者信心。这将使经济增长在明年向着长期趋势回归。
雷曼兄弟美国首席经济学家伊桑•哈里斯(Ethan Harris)认同这一观点。他表示：“我们看到，住宅市场正开始回复平衡。在这一过程中，关键的标志是房屋库存下降，伴之以建筑活动趋于稳定。”
哈里斯预计，本周公布的三组数据将为市场启稳提供佐证，其中成屋销售量将出现8个月来的首次上升，新屋销售量的降幅将不到2％，同时第三季度房屋价格将温和回升，以年率计算上涨2％。
但还存在另一种可能出现的前景：建筑活动将继续急剧下滑，导致幅度更大的裁员、房价走弱，并侵蚀消费者信心，令美国经济面临衰退的风险。
自美联储上次会议以来，这种悲观前景可能已在该银行内部讨论中占据了上风。当时，美联储决定维持利率不变，但保持了货币紧缩的取向。
其部分原因在于，另有数据显示，通胀水平——迄今为止它一直是美联储理事关注的焦点——出现了令人欣慰的下降。但这同时也是由于上月新屋开工数下降15％，至150万套，跌幅之大超出了多数经济学家的预期。
建筑活动的进一步走弱——加之通胀水平得到抑制、失业率不断上升——可能令美联储目前的强硬立场有所转变，并引发是否应于明年降息的严肃辩论。
大型房屋建筑商承认，住宅市场的下滑幅度，超出其今年初时的预测。
美林(Merrill Lynch)美国首席经济学家戴维•罗森伯格(David Rosenberg)表示：“我认为，最近一批数据告诉人们，住房市场尚未见底。整个行业在2007年末之前不会见底。”
罗森伯格预计，住宅市场将进一步下滑10％，同时“至少还要再裁员40万-50万人”。
关键在于，他还预计房价明年将下降10％，这将对消费者决心构成严峻考验。
罗森伯格指出，买家不仅在回避购买新屋，而且还在毁约，放弃购买已签约的房屋。
第三季度，全行业购房订单取消率升至42％，原因是消费者宁愿损失定金，也不愿冒被房价急剧下跌套牢的风险。
美国最大的住房建筑商之一——DR Horton的首席执行官唐•汤姆尼兹(Don Tomnitz)称，由于担心价格进一步直线下跌，买家纷纷避免出手，从而使市场上产生了一种“不良心理”。但他认为，这种现象正创造“被压抑”的需求，这种需求将于2008年得到释放，并带动住宅市场强劲回升。
房地产经纪人多倾向于这种乐观观点。据克林格称，在拉斯维加斯山谷，甚至有按耐不住的买家又开始看房了。
她表示：“最终，总有需要为孩子增加空间或置办新居的家庭。人们不会停止买房。” |
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发表于 2006-12-24 23:19:09
发表于 2006-12-25 16:35:29
I've paid as reward~~~
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