华盛顿邮报驻上海记者答网友提问－变化中的中国

FHC

China's Transformation

Peter S. Goodman

Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, November 4, 2005; 10:00 AM

Washington Post staff writer Peter S. Goodman was online from Shanghai to answer your questions about developments in China.

In recent months, Goodman has addressed issues including China's wave of privatization, its emergence as a magnet for foreign investment and trade negotiations with the U.S.

Peter S. Goodman: Greetings all and thanks for showing up. It's a drizzly, muggy Friday night in Shanghai; morning in Washington. I'm eager to take your questions.
注：以下说法仅代表该记者观点，不代表本人观点，其观点仅供参考。_____________________

FHC

Amsterdam, Netherlands: Could you give some colour on the way Chinese are looking to the US as they blame the Chinese for a lot of things, ranging from unfair competition while not opening their own markets (e.g. in case of CNOOC but also on Chinese textile imports, ignoring earlier arrangements) and blaming Chinese for the large US current account deficit (while China's grow in recent years largely depends on US growth). Furthermore, recently there are several political clashes related to Chinese supportive policies (or US dissupportive policies) toward governments in e.g. Sudan, Venezuela and Iran?阿姆斯特丹，荷兰：最近美国频频向中国发难，从指责中国不正当竞争到将巨大的财政赤字归罪于中国（事实上美国却在某些方面不开放自己的市场，如美国政府干涉中国石油公司CNOOC收购美国的一家石油公司，以及不顾早期达成的协定而限制中国纺织品的进口等问题），还有两国在政治上的冲突在近期也时有发生，如中国支持苏丹、委内瑞拉和伊朗政府，而美国却持相反立场。对于两国这些方面的冲突和矛盾，您认为中国会怎样看待这些问题呢？

FHC

Peter S. Goodman: There's definitely a lot of anger directed at the US these days here, from government officials to entrepreneurs to ordinary people. When the subject is the textile dispute or the currency issue, yes, there is a fairly widespread sentiment that the US is making China a scapegoat for its own economic problems, overlooking the fact that the majority of China's exports come from factories that have some foreign investment. You hear time and again that the $160 billion plus trade surplus is largely a product of foreign (including US) companies taking advantage of cheap labor here to make goods that are being happily snapped up by consumers around the world. And you hear frustration that China has -- as is widely seen here -- opened up its markets to competition from the likes of Citibank and Dell Computer et al, in areas where foreigners are strong, only to see the door slammed in places where China is strong such as textiles. CNOOC's foiled bid to buy Unocal has left a lot of resentment here.Peter S. Goodman（以下简称为皮特）:毫无疑问，这段时间在中国许多人－从政府官员到企业家甚至普通民众－都对美国政府的行为表示愤怒。当谈及到纺织品出口或人民币汇率问题时，在这里有一种比较普遍的情绪就是人们认为美国把中国当作了美国经济问题的替罪羊。其实稍微动一下脑筋我们就可以发现中国向美国出口的商品大部分都有外国投资的背景。高达1,600亿美元的贸易顺差的背后是外国（包括美国）公司正在利用这里的廉价劳动力（制造出便宜的商品）从而使全世界的消费者受益。中国正在不得已开放他们并不占优势的市场，让那些跨国公司巨头如花旗银行、戴尔电脑等进入中国的市场，而中国CNOOC公司不能如愿以偿按照市场规则收购美国的Unocal公司使很多人感到愤恨。

FHC

Frazier Park, California: Do you think that China has enough power to take over the U.S. and eventually the world?Frazier Park，加利福尼亚：您认为中国有足够的实力取代美国进而最终主宰全球吗？
Peter S. Goodman: Ah, the question of our time. Or at least the question of the time on the bookstore shelves. I think that China's transformation is clearly a momentous force in the global economy, its appetite for everything from oil to iron ore changing pricing structure, transportation, the environment, energy and security policy. I think that China will continue to be a formidable competitor in near every part of manufacturing and China's rise will create new opprtunities and new tensions pretty much everywhere. I also think that, all of that said, China's emergence can get way overhyped, the conventional perspective failing to account for some huge challenges that China faces -- a rickety banking structure full of lousy loans and more on the way; potentially crippling shortages of water and energy; social instability as state workers are laid off as part of the transition to market economy, and as farmers incomes slip in some parts of the country; a system that still wastes vast quantities of capital on roads to nowhere, white elephant skyscrapers and other such stuff, all of the deals lubricated by brazen and endemic corruption. A long way of saying, dunno. But it will certainly be worth watching.
皮特：啊哈，这是我们这个时代的问题，或者至少是搁置在书架上的问题。我认为，中国的转变对于全球的经济的却是是一股巨大的力量，他们巨大的需求－从石油到铁矿石－正在改变价格架构，对于交通、环境、能源以及安全政策都会有不同程度的影响。我认为中国将会逐渐变为一个在制造业方面的强有力的竞争者，同时中国也将给世界创造更多的机会和压力。
我还认为，就像人们常说的那样，中国的崛起正处于十字路中，中国面临的一些问题使我们暂时不能按照传统的方法预测他们的将来：充满不良贷款的银行体系危机四伏、即将达到极限的水和能源危机、国有工厂工人的不断下岗被推向市场造成的社会不稳定性增加，部分地区农民收入下滑；花费巨资修筑不知通向何方的公路和摩天大厦，几乎所有这些项目的背后都隐藏着厚颜无耻的贪污腐败问题。
因此，现在这个问题还不好说，只能说‘我不知道’。不管怎么说，这还是一个值得关注的话题。

FHC

Tianjin, China: How do you think about China's education? How much gap do you think is there, compared with the U.S.?天津，中国：您怎么看待中国的教育问题，您认为同美国相比，中国在教育方面还有多大的差距？
Peter S. Goodman: I hear mixed things. Clearly, China is pumping out vast numbers of well-educated people, particularly in the sciences. Engineers abound, and there is intellectual capital to throw at developing the country. But I also hear that creativity and innovation are sorely lacking compared to the US -- maybe a cliche. Also of concern are enormous gaps in the system. In the new China, there really is no universal education: You either pay or you miss out. Farmers are taking on enormous debts to keep their children in school in the hopes that they will make it to college and into the white collar ranks, lifting the whole family out of still endemic rural poverty.
我得到的消息有时令我困惑。很明显，中国正在涌现出大量受到过良好教育的人，尤其是在理科方面。中国有大量的工程师资源去服务于国家发展。但是我也听说这里的人才同美国相比在创造力和创新力上明显处于下风，这听起来可能像陈词滥调。另外值得人们忧虑的就是两国在教育制度方面的巨大差距。在中国根本就没有全民教育：要么付钱上学，要么你就回家呆着去。农民们大举借债就是为了使他们的孩子们能留在学校从而实现大学毕业后进入白领阶层的希望，如果这种希望实现了，他们全家就有可能从此摆脱乡村的长期贫困生活状况。

FHC

Chengdu, China: Hope there will be more investment on Chengdu, will that come true?成都，中国：希望有更多的投资投到成都，有可能实现吗？
Peter S. Goodman: Chengdu, capital of Sichuan province, and home of China's greatest food! I hear from marketing and retail types that there is more and more interest in opening up branches of stores in major cities in the interior such as Chengdu. Auto makers have plants there, and surely more manufacturing on tap in a province that is home to 100 million people.
皮特：成都，四川省的省会城市，那儿可是中国最有名气的川菜之发源地呀！我听说一些零售商对到一些内陆城市开办分支商场越来越感兴趣，比如说成都。那里已经有了汽车制造厂，肯定有越来越多的制造业将会在那里开办工厂，毕竟，那里是人口超过一亿的省份的省会城市。

FHC

Toronto, Canada: Will China stop purchasing US treasury bond, triggering further devaluation of USD?多伦多，加拿大：中国会停止购买美国长期国库卷从而使美元进一步贬值吗？
Peter S. Goodman: Well, many people are asking this. So far, China has firmly said no, and it's kind of hard to imagine why they would want to go this route. If China stopped buying US bonds, US interest rates would climb and US growth would diminish. That would presumably limit the American appetite for all those Chinese-made blue jeans and DVD players and furniture that is creating that big pile of dollars China is sinking into bonds in the first place. China and the US, it is often said, are in a codependent relationship in a global economy out of balance.
皮特：嗯，好多人都提问过相同的问题。到目前为止，中国肯定会坚定的说‘不’，很难想象他们为什么会这么做。如果中国停止购买美国长期国库卷，美国的利率将会上升从而使美国的经济增长减缓。这将大大影响美国民众购买中国生产的牛仔裤、DVD播放器以及家具等商品，而中国正是利用这些廉价商品的大量出口才有能力购买美国的国库卷。就像人们常说的，中美两国在失控的全球经济形式下是一种相互依存的关系。

FHC

Houston, Texas: If China is so friendly, why is 90 billion being spent on building up their military? Why is China arming terrorist states such as Iran.休斯顿，德克萨斯州：如果中国是友好的，他们为什么斥资900亿美元用于构建军事系统？为什么中国正武装那些‘恐怖分子’国家，如伊朗呢？

FHC

Peter S. Goodman: China calls its emergence a"peaceful rise." Critics point to China's military buildup, its energy deals with Sudan, Iran and Burma, as evidence that it is anything but peaceful. When you talk to policymakers here who are willing to speak candidly, they will say that China will do business with any state that can help it achieve its aims --securing needed energy, preventing Taiwan from drifting further toward independence. Chinese officials also say they are responding to a world that is, in their view, being menaced by an increasingly unilateralist, interventionist United States. Many have told me that China's recent push to go abroad for energy was propelled in part by their fears that that the American war in Iraq put China in the position of perhaps being left behind in an intensifying global competition for resources and influence.皮特：中国将他们的崛起称为‘和平崛起’。评论家将中国构建军事系统和与苏丹、伊朗和缅甸的能源合作等作为中国和平发展的证据。当你同这里的那些能够与你坦率交谈的政策制定者谈起这些问题的时候，他们会说中国原意同世界上任何能够帮助他们实现其既定目标－让中国获得安全的能源和阻止台湾从中国独立出去－的国家进行合作。中国官员还说这是基于当今世界现状的现实作出的反应，这个世界越来越受到来自美国片面限武论和国家干涉主义的威胁。还有很多人告诉我中国近来加大到世界各国寻求能源的力度在部分程度上是由于他们担心自美国发动伊拉克战争后会使中国在能源竞争和国际影响力上被置于不利的境地。

FHC

China: Dear Mr. Goodman: A lot of Chinese leaders' children are in business or married big business entrepreneurs. It seems that Chinese politics is gradually merging with the capital business. What are your thoughts on this?Sincerely
Peter S. Goodman: There is no question that the so-called Princelings -- the children of senior Party officials -- are a powerful, sometimes unavoidable force in Chinese business. Many companies hire a Princeling before they apply for the right to list their stock or as a way to secure government business. The Princelings have gotten very skilled at using their connections to state power for personal gain.
_______________________
Jiangsu, China: Sir,
I think the weakest point of China's economy is a lack of world-class R&D researchers and research facilities. Can you describe why and how far China is behind USA in this aspect.
Best regards,
Neil Shen
Peter S. Goodman: China sinks a very small share of its overall economy into research and development compared to most major economies. Going forward, this could be a real problem. Generally, China has shown a knack for copying things made elsewhere and squeezing costs out of the chain to make them really cheaply, but not much of a knack for designing anything new. Managers want cash now. They don't always have the patience to invest in an idea that could deliver cash later -- maybe not an irrational approach in a country where theft of intellectual property is standard business. Also, so much cheap credit has nurtured an over-abundance of competition, pushing prices for many consumer goods through the floor. With profit margins so tight, many companies lack the capital for R & D.
_______________________
Bratislava, Slovakia: Do you think, that the economic growth in China will firm the communist regime in China or will firm the movement for democracy?
Peter S. Goodman: If I knew that, I'd really know something. So far, the Party has done a masterful job making businesses and entrepreneurs part of their project -- co-opting might be the right word. Scholarship has shown that Chinese capitalists as a class tend to be supportive of the Party's aims, and particularly its force as a guarantor of stability, even if it comes through repression. But there is also deep bitterness about the extent of corruption here, the sense that land and capital are largely contolled by those with connections to the Party; bitterness over the sense that neither the courts nor the Chinese press operate transparently, leaving people with little redress when they get wronged by those in power. As Chinese people get wealthier, more are traveling abroad, seeing how other societies function. The Internet and technology in general are both a means of the government keeping tabs on would-be subversives and a subversive force in their own right. I do think, on balance, that the era of capitalism has brought more information into Chinese society, and that tends toward democracy in the long run. But it could be a really long run.
_______________________
New Haven, CT: Economic prosperity is usually accompanied by greater knowledge about the world, more expectations from government, and a greater sense of entitlement. Are young middle class Chinese beginning to talk about a political future for their country that includes democracy, or are conversations mostly focused on future economic growth, without mention of altering the communist political system?
Peter S. Goodman: Travel, the arrival of foreigners and the Web have all broadened the view. But, to indulge in a gross generalization, my experience has been that most well-educated young Chinese are keenly focused on the amazing economic opportunities that the economic reforms have delivered, and far less on politics. Especially in Shanghai where seemingly all the young people are obsessed with buying apartments, cars and Louis Vuitton luggage.
_______________________
New York, NY: What impact has the growth of the private sector had on education, particularly at the university level?
Peter S. Goodman: In some instances, professors at prestigious public schools have traded on their good names to open for profit private schools. In many of these cases, the degrees prove of limited value, though the students must pay -- for them -- exorbitabt tuitions. More generally, an abundance of opportunities spawned by development of private sector has created great interest in studying business, accounting, engineering and such.
_______________________
Taipei, Taiwan: What is the general public sentiment regarding Taiwanese independence? Has it been affected by China's rapid economic development? Is it an important concern to the average citizen? How about to the average professional in a more developed city like Shanghai, with a large ex-pat Taiwanese population?
Peter S. Goodman: Overwhelmingly, mainland Chinese are hostile to Taiwan independence, and passionately so. As the Communist Party has embraced capitalism, it has clearly stirred up nationalism as a force of cohesion. I have found in my travels that the more educated the person, the more likely they are to care deeply about Taiwan, with many seeing the independence movement there as an American-nurtured ploy to keep China separate and weakened.
_______________________
Germantown, MD: So how long have you stayed in China and how extensively have you traveled in the country?
Peter S. Goodman: I spent a year in Taiwan studying Chinese. I have lived in Shanghai for the last three years plus. I have been fortunate to travel all over the place, to nearly every province. And it hasn't gotten boring yet.
_______________________
Durham, NC: It seems that many companies are investing in China in hopes they will make money in the future. Are any companies actually making returns on their investments now?
Peter S. Goodman: Good question. Data is scarce, because most publicly traded companies don't break out their China earnings for separate inspection. But surveys and anecdotes suggest that the last two years have been nicely profitable for a lot of multinationals, particularly car companies and household goods and fast food companies. Still, there are plenty of examples of companies getting intoxicated by the potential of 1.3 billion customers -- 2.6 billion feet for shoe companies to target! Incalculable teeth for the toothbrush makers! -- while engaging in risky deal-making they would avoid elsewhere.
_______________________
Raleigh, North Carolina: I have been to China a few times. As you are aware of , the air and water pollution problem is very serious. What is your opinion on this? Do you think China will be able to rectify these issues?
Peter S. Goodman: It's a big problem, no doubt. There is more and more official rhetoric devoted to the need to take care of the environment, and increasingly visible protests by villagers fed up with water pollution and the loss of land to development. But by and large industrialization reigns here, and that seems likely to continue for a good while. Development and lifting people out of poverty trumps all other considerations.
_______________________
Fairfax, VA: How do you feel the real estate market there now? Do you think the bubble there is more serious than US?
Peter S. Goodman: There are a lot of worries about a bubble here, particularly at the high end of the market. I really don't know the US market, so I'll steer clear of comparisons. But there are worries that so much is being built here that it will eventually lead to empty places, losses and more bad loans. At the same time, there is enormous demand for new housing, so the building boom could have a long way to go.
_______________________
China: Dear Mr. Goodman: During your journalism career in China. Do you have ties to the senior party officials and will their opinion influence yours, when it comes to reporting?
Peter S. Goodman: If only I had such access that their influence on my reporting was a worry! We make enormous efforts to get access to inner circles and it is hard going: Such access is tightly restricted. From where I sit, more information and acess is always good for journalism. I'm a long way from getting coopted.
_______________________
Arlington, VA: Hi Peter, I've read reports that China is making a concerted effort to build up the North Eastern provinces, Liaoning, Jilin, etc. Is this true? Which countries would invest there - Germany? Russia? Thanks.
Peter S. Goodman: You hear correctly. The northeast, China's Rust Belt, where Mao chased visions of insutrial grandeur, at first with Soviet help, is now among the worst off areas of the country, with millions of people laid off by bankrups state factories. It's grim. But there is now an initiative to get investment in there.
_______________________
Rosemead, California: Do the Chinese plan to do something about the filthy air in Beijing in time for the 2008 Olympics?
Peter S. Goodman: Much underway, with many of the worst polluters -- coal-fired power plants -- forced to move out of the city. Also a push to accelerate usage of natural gas.
_______________________
Munich, Germany: There were many people, 20 years ago, that thought that by now, Japan would have succeeded the U.S. as the most powerful national economy on earth. Back in those days, it was thought that it would take China an additional 30 years, 50 years total, to reign supreme in international business and manufacturing.
While I've read that China's emergence as the foremost economic power is almost inevitable, do you see any hiccups within the next few years that could potentially change this outcome?
Peter S. Goodman: Lotta hiccups, yes. It's fashionable now to debate whether China can keep growing and become a superpower or whether it will hit a crisis. I don't think they are mutually excusive. I don't think there's any doubt that China's force in the global economy is here to stay. I also think it's inevitable that China will stumble at some point. External forces could trigger a crisis -- an oil shock, a sharp drop in demand for its exports from Europe or the US. Internal forces, maybe -- a bursting of the potential real estate bubble, a banking crisis. But China is such a huge economy, its own domestic market growing considerably, that it does seem certain to keep developing one way or the other.
_______________________
Peter S. Goodman: Well, we've more than run out of time and still I've hardly put a dent in the pile of questions. Apologies to those whose questions sit unanswered. I hope we'll do this again. And many thanks for paying attention to what is a really important story. Best wishes.
_______________________
Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions