Think house prices are unaffordable now ?
本帖最后由 kaiensi 于 2014-1-14 00:59 编辑How Canada’s housing market will look in 2024: If you’re wealthy, it’s healthy. House prices have risen in the area of 5.5% annually on average over the past 17 years, almost exactly what the Canadian Real Estate Association has estimated for 2013.
If house prices rise from current levels by an average annual rate of 2.5% over the next 10 years, the average Canadian home will cost half a million dollars. By my rough estimate, that would be a realistic purchase only for families with pretax income of at least $125,000 or so. Just for context, the most recent Statistics Canada numbers put the median total family income at $72,240 in 2011.
The “housing market is fine” people talk about immigration, low inventories and the fact they’re not building any more houses in some urban downtowns. But questions about basic affordability undermine all of these supports for the market.
Might annual wage increases bridge us from today’s income levels to where we need to be a decade from now if we want to maintain affordability at current levels? To get from the most recent median total family income figure of $72,240 to $125,000 over 10 years, you’d need annual pay hikes of 5.6 per cent. Dream on.
And what if average home price increases maintain a 5-per-cent clip for 10 more years? The average Canadian home would then run you about $637,000, Vancouver would be at $1.3-million, Calgary at about $725,000 and Toronto at almost $878,000. These are fantasy numbers, of course. Even if prices keep rising at half the average rate of the past 17 years, they’ll be utterly unaffordable for everyday people. We’re not far from that now.
看完之后，我内心很忐忑！ 哎，全世界都差不多，不过这速度跟国内比那是强太多了，起码10年内差不多就可以了
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